Amid ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, COSCO Shipping Lines has announced the resumption of new container bookings (standard boxes) from the Far East to select Middle East countries, including the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, and Iraq, effective immediately.
Iran Confirms Safe Passage for Non-Adversarial Vessels
According to Xinhua News Agency, Iran’s permanent mission to the United Nations issued a statement in the early hours of March 25 (Tehran time) via social media. The statement indicated that non-adversarial vessels, whose home countries or affiliates do not support or participate in aggressive actions against Iran, and that fully comply with announced safety regulations, may transit the Strait of Hormuz safely under coordination with relevant Iranian authorities.
Strait of Hormuz Shipping Volume Plummets
Recent data from maritime service provider Kpler shows a dramatic drop in commercial ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Between March 1 and 16:00 GMT on March 23, only 144 commercial vessels passed through the strait—a 95% decline compared to pre-conflict levels on February 28.
Most of these transits (91 voyages) involved oil and gas shipments, primarily heading east. The U.S.-led multinational “Combined Maritime Forces” reported that prior to the conflict, roughly 138 vessels traversed the strait daily.
Observations indicate that ships currently use a northern route approved by the Iranian government, passing north of Larak Island. The UK’s Lloyd’s List reported on March 23 that over 20 vessels were tracked using this route, which resembles a “security corridor” established by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), visually monitoring vessels passing through.
Due to limited supply, since March 3, approximately 11 LNG carriers originally destined for Europe have rerouted to closer Asian ports where spot prices are higher.
COSCO Shipping Resumption Details
On March 25, COSCO Shipping Lines issued a service advisory announcing that new bookings from the Far East to the following Middle East countries are now open: UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, and Iraq.
The company emphasized: “For specific booking arrangements, fees, and transport terms, please contact our local agents, your account representative, or COSCO directly. Bookings accepted prior to this advisory remain unaffected. We will continue monitoring developments in the Middle East and provide timely updates via our official website and customer service channels.”
COSCO clarified that there are currently no direct sailings through the Strait of Hormuz. All resumed bookings will be transported to external Persian Gulf ports such as Fujairah, Khor Fakkan, and Sohar, and then forwarded overland to the final destination.
Previously, on March 4, COSCO had suspended all new bookings for Far East–Middle East routes due to escalating tensions and restricted maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, in order to protect cargo safety and maintain operational stability.
Global Oil Supply Under Pressure
The Strait of Hormuz is a critical maritime chokepoint, with over a quarter of the world’s seaborne oil trade and around one-fifth of global LNG shipments passing through. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, daily oil shipments through the strait in 2024 averaged roughly 20 million barrels.
JPMorgan’s latest report warns that the current global oil supply gap has reached 16 million barrels per day, with approximately 10 million barrels per day of the shortfall expected to persist into April. The bank notes that policy measures, such as strategic reserves or sanction exemptions, can only partially mitigate the disruption.
Morgan Stanley analysts also indicate that if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed until the end of April, Brent crude could reach $150 per barrel. Even if tensions ease, analysts expect oil prices to remain supported at $85–90 per barrel, with a likely rebound to $110 until normal shipping resumes. Kotak Securities forecasts Brent crude will fluctuate between $95–110 in the near term.
Implications for Middle East Shipping and Logistics
COSCO Shipping’s resumption of Far East–Middle East bookings represents a cautious reopening of trade, though transit through the Strait of Hormuz remains heavily restricted. Shippers and freight forwarders should plan carefully, leveraging alternative Persian Gulf ports and overland transit to mitigate risk.
Global logistics and energy markets continue to face uncertainty, with rising freight costs, potential delays, and oil price volatility expected to influence trade and supply chain planning in the coming weeks.
