A newly released French government strategic report has sparked discussion across Europe by recommending that the European Union consider imposing a uniform 30% tariff on all Chinese imports, or alternatively allow the euro to depreciate by 30% against the Chinese yuan.
The proposal reflects growing concern among some European policymakers about increasing competitive pressure from Chinese manufacturers across multiple strategic industries.
Strategic Report Highlights Rising Competitive Pressure
According to French media reports, the strategic analysis—published on February 9—argues that Europe is facing accelerating competition from Chinese firms expanding their global market share.
The report identifies several key sectors as particularly vulnerable:
-
Automotive manufacturing
-
Machine tools
-
Chemical industries
-
Battery production
It suggests that approximately one-quarter of French exports and up to two-thirds of German industrial production are exposed to Chinese competition.
European manufacturers have reportedly noted significant improvements in Chinese product quality combined with cost advantages estimated at 30–40%, intensifying pressure on EU-based producers.
The head of France’s High Commission for Strategy and Planning warned that without policy adjustments, Europe risks entering what he described as a “destructive cycle” of industrial decline.
Policy Options: Tariffs vs Currency Adjustments
The report outlines two potential macro-level responses:
-
A blanket 30% tariff on Chinese imports into the EU
-
A 30% depreciation of the euro against the yuan
However, it acknowledges substantial challenges in implementing either measure. Currency adjustments would be complex and politically sensitive, while tariffs would require majority approval among EU member states—an outcome that is far from guaranteed.
The report concedes that coordinated action across the European Union would be necessary before any such policy could take effect.
EU Leadership Signals Preference for “European Priority” Measures
Separately, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen expressed support for strengthening Europe’s strategic autonomy by prioritizing European companies in key sectors.
In a letter to EU leaders, she emphasized that Europe must be capable of defending its strategic interests while supporting domestic production capacity.
The European Commission is expected later this month to propose new guidelines that would:
-
Prioritize European manufacturers in public procurement for strategic industries
-
Require bidders in sectors such as automotive and green technology to demonstrate a defined percentage of European-made components
EU Industry Commissioner Thierry Breton has advocated for a European version of “Buy American” style policies, arguing that public funds should reinforce European production and employment.
Mixed Reactions Across Europe
The proposed measures have generated varied reactions among EU member states:
-
Italy and Germany support strengthening European manufacturing but caution against overly aggressive protectionism.
-
Estonia, Finland, Latvia, Lithuania, the Netherlands, and Sweden have warned that excessive regulatory measures could complicate trade frameworks and create unintended consequences.
Concerns have also been expressed by non-EU stakeholders, including Turkey and Japanese automotive manufacturers, particularly regarding potential disruptions to the automotive sector.
What This Means for International Trade
At present, these recommendations remain policy proposals rather than enacted measures. However, they reflect a broader trend of increasing trade scrutiny and industrial policy adjustments within the European Union.
For exporters, manufacturers, and logistics operators, potential implications may include:
-
Increased tariff risk exposure
-
Changes in procurement qualification requirements
-
Shifts in supply chain strategy
-
Reassessment of EU market entry cost structures
Businesses operating in EU-China trade lanes should monitor policy developments closely and prepare contingency planning for possible regulatory changes.
Strategic Considerations for Exporters
Companies engaged in Europe-bound trade may wish to evaluate:
-
Diversification of EU entry ports
-
Alternative routing or bonded warehousing strategies
-
Local assembly or value-added processing options
-
Long-term contract risk allocation clauses
While no immediate tariff action has been finalized, the discussion signals a period of heightened trade policy sensitivity within the European Union.
