A major shift in global maritime logistics is underway as the world’s largest container vessels begin returning to the Suez Canal after a two-year absence caused by conflict and instability along the Red Sea shipping corridor.
On December 23, the 23,000-TEU ultra-large container ship “CMA CGM Jacques Saade” successfully transited the Suez Canal, marking a symbolic milestone for global trade. French carrier CMA CGM has confirmed the full restoration of its Suez Canal services, reactivating routings from Asia to Europe. Its sister ship, the “CMA CGM Osiris,” passed through the canal earlier on June 18 as part of the same operational resumption.
The return of mega-containerships often signals a profound change in the shipping landscape. Since a regional ceasefire was agreed on October 10, 2025, security conditions in the Red Sea and surrounding waters have significantly improved, creating the conditions for carriers to reassess cost, operational risk, and reliability.
CMA CGM has moved the fastest, planning to resume its India–US East Coast services via the Suez Canal beginning January 2026. By contrast, Danish giant Maersk has adopted a more cautious “gradual return” strategy, allowing selected vessels to transit while maintaining case-by-case approvals based on real-time intelligence and naval escort coordination.
For carriers, the economic calculation behind the return is straightforward. Diverting vessels around the Cape of Good Hope adds approximately 3,500–4,000 nautical miles to the journey. Analysts estimate that Cape routings are roughly 40% longer than Suez transits, extending voyages by 10–14 days. Fuel consumption per voyage increases by roughly 1,300 tons, with additional costs exceeding USD 900,000 per sailing. By comparison, Suez services reduce Asia–Europe transit times by 10–12 days.
The Suez Canal Authority (SCA) has also taken proactive measures to attract large vessels back. For container ships exceeding 130,000 gross tons, the authority is offering a 15% transit fee discount—an incentive that aligns both economic and operational considerations.
The return of large vessels is a critical sign of recovery for Egypt and the Suez Canal itself. Annual revenue peaked at USD 10.2 billion in 2023 before declining sharply to around USD 4.1 billion in 2025. Since the start of Egypt’s new fiscal year on July 1, 2025, 5,874 vessels have transited the canal, generating USD 1.97 billion in revenue. Compared to the previous year, vessel traffic increased 17.5% and net tonnage rose 14.4%. The SCA forecasts that revenues may recover to USD 8 billion in fiscal year 2026/2027.
The impact of route normalization is already rippling through global supply chains. As more carriers return to the faster Suez corridor, effective fleet capacity will expand, easing the supply tightness that fueled “ocean freight inflation.” Market observers suggest that Europe and North America spot rates could begin to decline in Q2 2026, with Asia–Europe spot rates potentially falling 15–20%.
This renewed balance does not imply a return to pre-crisis simplicity. The next phase of maritime logistics will be shaped as much by geopolitics, insurance premiums, and naval coordination as by fuel prices and nautical distances. And risks remain fluid: recent tensions involving Israel have raised concerns that renewed conflict in Gaza could again disrupt Red Sea navigation.
For now, however, the world’s shipping lanes are adjusting, recalibrating, and quietly redefining the structure of global trade.
