According to the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA), Chinese car exports reached 5.71 million units in the first nine months of 2025, representing a 21% year-on-year increase. Mexico has now become the top destination for Chinese car exports, followed by the UAE, while Russia has fallen to third place. This shift reflects a significant change in the destination landscape for Chinese automotive exports. In the past two years, Russia was the number one destination for Chinese vehicles.
Data shows that in the first nine months of 2025, China exported 357,700 vehicles to Russia, a dramatic 58% decline compared with the same period last year. Two years ago, Russia led Chinese car exports, but in 2025, Mexico topped the chart with 410,700 units, and the UAE followed with 367,800 units. Liu Lei, Deputy General Manager of Tianjin Shengtai Rentong International Trade Co., expressed his concern: “Previously, exporting a single new energy vehicle to Russia could earn tens of thousands of yuan in net profit. Now, some of my peers are pausing their Russia business, and our company is also reducing exports to Russia.”
The sharp decline is largely driven by policy changes. Starting in January 2025, Russia raised import duties on cars to 20%-38%, increasing the clearance cost per vehicle by up to 2,637 yuan. Earlier, in October 2024, the vehicle scrapping tax surged by 70%-85%, with 2–3 liter cars older than three years jumping from 114,000 yuan to 208,000 yuan, and further increases are expected in the coming years. Additionally, Russia’s high base interest rate of 21% pushes annual car loan rates to 30%, raising the average car price to 250,000 yuan and sharply cooling consumer demand.
The competitive landscape is also changing. With the easing of the Russia–Ukraine conflict, multinational brands such as BMW and Toyota are accelerating their return to the market, prompting local consumers to delay purchases and further squeezing Chinese brands’ market share. At the same time, after-sales service issues are becoming more apparent. Russian media reports have highlighted problems such as discontinued parts, incompatible components, and long repair cycles. Some models struggle to find replacement parts after just five years, severely affecting brand reputation. Leading Chinese carmakers are adjusting their strategies: brands like Chery have explicitly reduced operations in Russia and are selling local assets and dealer channels.
Industry experts emphasize that Chinese brands cannot rely solely on price advantages to succeed in Russia. Companies must strengthen after-sales service, ensure a consistent supply of spare parts, and enhance local communication to demonstrate the quality and reliability of their vehicles. CPCA Secretary-General Cui Dongshu noted that the changes in the Russian market are forcing Chinese automakers to shift from short-term speculation to long-term cultivation. Only by addressing service gaps and adapting to local policies can Chinese car brands secure a stable position in the global automotive market.
