Rising Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz

Recently, tensions between the United States and Iran have continued to escalate, bringing the Strait of Hormuz back into the spotlight of the global shipping industry.

A reported policy proposal from the Trump administration — introducing a 20% transit fee based on the cargo value for goods passing through the Strait of Hormuz — has triggered significant concerns across global energy and logistics markets.

As one of the world’s most strategically important maritime routes, any disruption or additional cost in the Strait of Hormuz could have a major impact on global transportation networks, fuel prices, insurance costs, and supply chain stability.

1. Where Does the 20% Transit Fee Proposal Come From?

During a recent interview with Fox News, President Trump reportedly stated that the United States would “take control and protect” the Strait of Hormuz.

According to the proposal, cargo transported through this strategic waterway would be subject to a fee equivalent to 20% of the cargo value, with the stated purpose of offsetting the costs associated with maintaining maritime security in the region.

Trump also announced measures related to renewed restrictions on Iran through his social media platform Truth Social, while US naval authorities reportedly confirmed plans related to maritime security operations.

At the same time, Trump emphasized that other countries would continue to have access to “fair and open” navigation rights, while the United States would collect corresponding fees to support long-term regional security.

2. How Significant Could the Cost Impact Be?

Shipping analysts have conducted preliminary estimates regarding the potential financial impact.

Oil Transportation Impact

According to shipping analyst Lars Jensen, founder of Vespucci Maritime:

• The estimated value of oil transported through the Strait of Hormuz in 2025 was approximately USD 500 billion.
• A 20% transit fee could theoretically represent up to USD 100 billion in annual charges.

This demonstrates the potentially enormous financial impact such a policy could create for global energy transportation.

Impact on Large Oil Tankers

Haider Anjum, shipping analyst at Jyske Bank, estimated that:

For the world’s largest crude oil tankers, the additional cost could potentially reach USD 100 million per vessel.

This would be significantly higher than previous transit fee proposals reportedly discussed by Iran, which were around USD 2 million per vessel.

Impact on Container Shipping

Container transportation could also face substantial cost pressure.

Lars Jensen referenced data showing that before the escalation of tensions:

• The average spot freight rate on the Shanghai–Dubai route was approximately USD 1,430/TEU over the previous 12 months.
• The estimated average cargo value of one 20-foot container (TEU) is around USD 54,500.

A 20% charge based on cargo value would mean:

Additional cost per container: approximately USD 10,900

Compared with previous freight levels, transportation costs on the Shanghai–Dubai route could potentially increase by more than 600%.

3. International Maritime Organization (IMO) Response

The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has expressed concerns regarding the proposed transit fee.

An IMO spokesperson stated that the organization has consistently opposed charging fees for passage through international straits.

The IMO emphasized that:

“There is currently no legal basis for mandatory charges simply because vessels pass through an international strait.”

This position introduces additional uncertainty regarding the potential implementation and legality of such a policy.

4. Regional Security Risks Continue to Increase

According to reports from the UAE Ministry of Defence, several maritime security incidents have occurred near the Strait of Hormuz, including attacks on vessels that resulted in casualties and injuries among crew members.

The Strait of Hormuz remains one of the most critical energy transportation routes in the world, handling a significant share of global crude oil shipments.

Any disruption to navigation through this area could create multiple supply chain challenges:

• Rising fuel costs
• Increased marine insurance premiums
• Longer alternative shipping routes
• Higher vessel operating expenses
• Global freight rate fluctuations

Conclusion: Preparing for Potential Supply Chain Disruptions

From crude oil tankers to container vessels, from individual vessel costs to global freight rates, the potential 20% transit fee proposal has already attracted significant attention from the shipping market.

Although the IMO has raised legal concerns regarding such charges, geopolitical uncertainty continues to create challenges for international logistics.

For global importers, exporters, and supply chain operators, it is essential to:

• Closely monitor regional developments
• Evaluate alternative transportation routes
• Prepare contingency plans
• Strengthen supply chain risk management